Treasury yield “inevitable rise” Not so fast!

 Just when you thought it was safe to believe the common wisdom of most market watchers and economists; the 10 year march to a 3.25% yield, actual events conspired to drive the 10 year yield down to its’ lowest rate in weeks. This week saw a surprising 1Q GDP downward revision and continued geo-political tensions in the Mideast. Add in the lower durable goods number today and the 10 year yield dropped to 2.54%, the lowest level in weeks. Analysts and pundits are scrambling to parse the GDP data (Jan/Feb vs. March, healthcare spending missing expectations, etc) and 2Q numbers will be closely scrutinized. The recent economic numbers will definitely give cover to the Fed dove wing who is seeking to push the inevitable (?) rise in the discount rate to late 2015 and possibly later. ….stay tuned….   David R. Pascale, Jr.