Treasury Equilibrium? What’s Next?

The 10 year treasury has been volatile this year, but August has seen an unusually stable treasury. Since August 1, the 10 year T has traded in the 1.50’s, ranging from 1.50-1.59. It is the usual push and pull of factors (negative or near zero rates in Europe and Japan, US inflation remains low, etc). Today’s housing reports is a great example as the Fed is very data dependent as they ponder their next move. Rate “Hawks” noted that new home sales hit their highest level in nearly a decade, while “Doves” note that existing home sales declined for the first time in many months. The 10 year sat right at 1.56%. The market is also waiting for a potential “game changer” speech from Fed Chair Yellen in Jackson Hole on Friday. Recent hawkish statements from other Fed officials have laid the groundwork for Yellen to definitively signal a September rate hike. The futures market probability of a September hike has doubled this week from 12% to 24%….things may get volatile. Stay tuned.

David R. Pascale, Jr.