Markets and the Fed Are “Data Driven” and the Engine Light is On

This week’s economic reports are pointing in the wrong direction: US Manufacturing dropped to the lowest reading in over 10 years, global trade is slowing to its weakest since 2009 (not helped by today’s tariff announcement between US and Europe), commodity prices and inflation remain below targets (remember the oil spike due to Saudi production interruption? Oil is down $10 a barrell in the last 2 weeks). The US economy’s main engines are manufacturing, service sector and consumers. Therefore, tomorrow’s service sector data (aka the ISM nonmanufacturing index) will be highly watched. The US consumer has remained strong lately. However, look for the Fed to cut rates for sure if weakness in those sectors is reported. The 10 year T hit a recent low of 1.59% today. By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners