Welcome to 2017, Are we moving from the “New Normal” to “Normal”?

Today’s “Hawkish” release of the December Fed Minutes is significant for what didn’t happen. The minutes indicated the Fed committee assuming the return of fiscal policy under a Trump administration (infrastructure, tax cuts, etc).  Also, some members pointed out that economic growth and inflation may be faster than currently anticipated and more or quicker rate increases by be warranted. In recent years, such a statement would most likely have caused a stock market sell off and other market disruptions, as the world economy was largely dependent on monetary policy i.e. central bank stimulus. Today, the markets barely “blinked” with major stock indices holding on to their gains. This is significant as markets are transitioning to focusing on fiscal policy from the President elect and Congress (and possibly from Europe soon), like the “old normal”. Treasuries, Predictions: After the major post-election selloff that saw the 10 year rise from 1.71% to 2.60% (December 15^th), it has settled into a tight range at about 2.45% for the past week. Is this a “pause” in the steep climb? Where are rates going from here? Longtime FINfacts readers will recall George Smith and me reporting on the annual interest rate forecast in the Wall Street Journal. Last week’s New Year’s Eve survey of 16 economist from the major banks indicate a range of 1.35% to 3.10% with an average of 2.63%. Three economists have a 3.00% or above prediction, 13 of the 16 predict a year end above today’s rate. stay tuned.   David R. Pascale, Jr.