It seems that here in the US, Brexit is a distant memory. Treasury yields are rising, the Dow and S&P are hitting record highs, and the Fed is now confident they can raise rates (one time?) in 2016. Futures market shows a 24% chance by September and a near 50% by year end – much higher than last month. There is a “perfect storm” of news, as positive US economic reports and better than expected corporate earnings boost the Treasury yield, but not “too much” as negative yields around the world attract foreign buyers to our Treasuries (a major spike in Japanese buyers for example). Credit spreads are narrowing, CMBS is benefitting from relative scarcity (issuance is down about 40% compared to last year). We are seeing new loans price from 4.10% to 4.25% (lower for solid assets). stay tuned
