Today’s Fed minutes reveal a debate over the timing of the first rate increase since 2006, referred to as “beginning normalization”. Does this mean that there will be a transition from the “new normal” to “normal”? Some policy makers feel that the economic data and future outlook warrant a June increase, while others are cautioning more patience, preferring to wait until September. Investors also noted that caution may be the path as the meeting took place before the disappointing March jobs report, released last Friday. The Fed does not want to raise rates too early and have to backtrack and lower rates if the economy stumbles…. Meanwhile, trends in Europe indicate that the Fed may not have a lot of control over long term rates as over $3 Trillion of European fixed rate debt has negative interest rates (dominated by Germany and France). Note that the 10 year yield for German government bonds is 0.16%. ….stay tuned…. David R. Pascale, Jr.
