The Fed released a “dot plot” last week showing the governors’ predictions of future rate increases. It indicates that the “normalized” short term funds rate (which has been virtually zero since late 2008) is 3.75%. Late 2017 is the target date. That indicates 13 quarter point rate raises. When? Note the Fed meets eight times per year and the general consensus is rates to start rising in mid-2015; the dots indicate raises at nearly every Fed meeting from mid 2015 until late 2017. With Europe in full on fear of deflation and massive QE, the question is will LIBOR rise in lock step with the Fed? This is the question from real estate investors as so many rates (bank, bridge lending funds, CMBS swaps) are tied to LIBOR. ….stay tuned… David R. Pascale, Jr
