The 10 year Treasury yield hit 2.65% in September as markets focused on Fed policy indicating potential rate increases as early as Spring 2015. Was this the long awaited end of the bond rally? Was Bill Gross heading for the exit just in time? Were the January predictions of a 3.50% (or 4.00%) 10 year by 2014 year-end starting to come true?… Today saw the 10 year treasury hit a low of 2.40% as investors turned their attention to actual data. US, Germany and the UK all reported disappointing manufacturing numbers (Germany contracted). This combined with protests in Hong Kong (accenting general concern about China) and the first case of Ebola in the US contributed to a run on the safe haven of US Treasuries. It is too early to tell if CMBS spreads are widening as often happens in such sudden Treasury sudden moves. ….stay tuned… David R. Pascale, Jr.
