Weaker than expected economic data this week (retail sales) combined with a Producers Price Index showing a rebound in prices as oil actually increased last month indicate no “clear path” to a decision on rate raises. The Fed futures market now shows investors anticipating no hike until December 2015, the first implied probability over 50%. Meanwhile, today’s ECB press conference featured bankers reassuring markets that they are not planning on slowing down their massive quantitative easing program. It seems they are trying to avoid rattling markets with any “taper talk” of their own. Lots of eyes are on the German 10 year yield as it nears 0.10%. If that benchmark bond goes negative, it may drag US Treasuries lower as “any yield” will seem like “a bargain”. ….stay tuned…. David R. Pascale, Jr.