“Patient” Fed Cools Treasury Spike

February 19, 2015

Today’s release of last month’s Fed minutes indicated continuing “patience” and a cautious Fed that is ultra “self-aware” of its ability to potentially derail a fragile recovery. The 10 year T closed at 2.07% after hitting 2.15% yesterday, capping off a 50 bps increase since mid-January. The combination of the January jobs report and Greece’s ability to stave off collapse contributed to a sell-off in treasuries. (Greece-markets seem “immune” to the possibility of a Greece exit from the Euro, much different from 2010 as Italy, Spain, etc. has strengthened their economies in the interim and a higher concentration of Greek debt is owned by central banks vs private investors). Today’s PPI reports also showed producer prices fell 0.8% last month, seasonally adjusted to negative 0.1%. These numbers also helped push back expectations of any rate increases as the Fed inflation target is 2.0%. The PPI info is mostly driven by dropping oil prices and therefore is not considered a harbinger of deflation (which is across the board price reductions in all sectors). …..stay tuned… David R. Pascale, Jr.

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