Treasuries Spike on “Real Progress” Towards Stimulus Deal

Stop me if you have heard this before, but stimulus talks have taken on new urgency with a potential agreement in the next few days. The question now is if the votes to approve will take place before or after the election. The talks have taken on new urgency as jobless claims increase, highly publicized layoffs by large companies, an anticipated spike in COVID infections, etc. Equity markets have rallied and treasury yields have spiked based on the expectations of an agreement. The 10 year treasury is at 0.82%, the highest level since June. Note that the 10 year Treasury dropped as low as 0.31% in March during the initial COVID crash. Other factors contributing to the rise in yields are the Federal Reserve’s decision not to implement “yield curve control” (meaning the Fed would buy enough Treasuries to keep long term rates at a certain level) and the huge supply of Treasuries (due to the US budget deficit). Stay tuned. By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners