Don't Miss a Fact,
Sign Up for FINfacts!

FINfacts is a weekly newsletter highlighting recent financings and economic insights.

Subscribe Here

Strong Economic Data Contradicts Recession Narrative as Yield Curve Inversion Hits 22 Year High

Monday opened with yields plummeting on a “flight to quality” as geo-political tensions rose due to the “flight to Taipei” by a US Congressional delegation. Worries dissipated on Tuesday as the focus shifted back to economic data and remarks from Fed officials. Today’s ISM numbers indicate strong demand for services. Factory orders rose in June with surprising demand. Markets may have been expecting recessionary pressures to create demand slack and cool inflation, thereby avoiding predicted interest rate hikes.

Fed officials chimed in as Fed President Bullard said the central bank “has a long way to go” to get back to the 2% inflation target. Fed President Mary Daly then started the September speculation game by saying a 50 basis point hike next month would be “reasonable.” Fed Futures rates softened immediately to a 57% probability of a 50 basis point increase. The markets favored a 75 basis point increase the night before. The 10-Year Treasury dropped to 2.51% Monday, jumped to 2.85% today, and now is at 2.71%. The 38 basis point inversion between the 2-Year Treasury and the 10-Year Treasury went to 40 basis points. Stay tuned…

By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners