Fiscal Stimulus Fades, Monetary Policy is Taken For Granted, Time for a Trade Deal?

After Treasuries hit a recent low last week due to Fed and ECB committing to low rates for the time being, markets jumped on Monday as the US and China both exceeded expectations with robust manufacturing reports. The China report was especially well received as it helped assuage global growth concerns. However, today’s ADP employment report indicated that US companies added the fewest workers since March 2017, steepest drop in construction jobs since 2012. It could be an anomaly (seasonal, weather) or a sign that the long hiring boom is slowing as the effects of the tax cuts wear off. So if the big fiscal policy effects are waning and interest rates seem to be low but static, what is the next jolt for the economy? It may be that 2 long simmering issues may be “solved” soon: US – China trade agreement and a softer Brexit. Treasury yields increased today after the disappointing jobs report. Either traders are waiting for Friday’s major employment report or were looking ahead to the trade deal? The 10 year is at 2.52% with all in 10 year loan rates in the 4.00% – 4.50% range. Stay tuned. By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners