Today’s Fed meeting and policy announcements showed the central bank committed to years of low rates and continued bond purchases with little fear of inflation. Markets were focused on the bond purchases and many were hoping for guidance indicating the purchase of longer term treasury bonds. The Fed’s $120 million of monthly bond purchases will continue as they “foster smooth market functioning and accommodative financial conditions, supporting the flow of credit”. A move to buying more longer term bonds (10 and 30 years) would alleviate fears that stimulus and deficit spending would lead to long term yields rising. No such announcement was made and the 10 year T is at 0.92%. The Fed balance sheet sits at $7.3 trillion and total US outstanding debt is $27.5 trillion. Note that at the end of 2007, the Fed balance sheet was at less than $1 trillion and US debt was $9 trillion. Supply/demand concerns are warranted. Meanwhile, Congressional negotiators are optimistic that they are on the verge of passing a $1.4 trillion spending bill for next year and about $900 billion in long awaited stimulus.
With vaccinations beginning this week in the US, there is cause for optimism, but it’s pretty certain that the next three months will be extremely challenging for public health and the economy. Both sides of the aisle agree: the stimulus bill is a “must pass” before this Congress adjourns. There is talk of a weekend session and possibly negotiating into next week with another one week stopgap being passed by Friday.
This is the final Finfacts of 2020, a year that has seen many challenges. I hope everyone has a safe and happy holiday season and best wishes for 2021. Stay tuned.
By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners