Equity and Bond Markets Rally

This week saw a new all time high in the S&P followed by a big drop in Treasury yields. Huh? Are we in “risk-on” or “risk-off” territory? Maybe it’s a case of stocks rallying on earnings reports and the tail end of buybacks stemming from the tax cut. Meanwhile, bonds are rallying on recent news forecasting a potential slowdown in the world’s major economies. The 10 year T is at 2.53%. Today’s bond market rally was fueled by a weaker than expected German sentiment, Australian price index very flat with their central bank poised to cut rates, a moderating of oil prices. US Treasury yields are low partially due to the relative value of other major industrial nations yields (many of which are negative or below 1.00%). Futures markets indicate no rate increases but rate cuts. It feels like a continuation of a “Goldilocks” period where many major developments are multifaceted and not entirely positive or negative. Example: the China-US trade talks. A deal seems likely (positive) but the details will probably lead to continued conflict in years to come as not all of the issues will be settled cleanly. Stay tuned. By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners

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