ECB Joins Fed, Not Quite Ready to Remove Accomodation

The 10 year Treasury hit 2.34% today, representing its lowest level since December 2017, as “capitulation” seems to be contagious amongst the major central banks. Last week our Fed and this week the ECB. Draghi comments sound familiar: not worried about inflation, sees growth risks and”substantial accommodation” was still needed to get inflation to their target levels (if ever?). Worldwide sovereign debt yields have plummeted. We are likely in a period of relative inaction by the central banks as they monitor the data. Interestingly, the 10 year Treasury (2.35%) is lower than 30 day LIBOR (2.49%) Regional bank stocks are being hammered due to the inversion of the yield curve, they can’t borrow short and lend long at a profit. But credit spreads are narrowing (corporates, CMBS, etc.), with lots of equity (funds, etc.) sitting on the sidelines. Even with debt costs at such a low level, deals need to pencil, income needs to increase in a low inflation environment. The news/data cycle suggests there is reason to believe in both safety (Negative news in Europe, fears of the slowing global economy) or risk (optimism about trade talks with China, full employment, wage increases) Stay tuned. By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners

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