China Trade Deal Signed, But Uncertainty Remains

After two years of uncertainty that roiled stock and bond markets, the Phase 1 trade deal has been signed. Now the details are being parsed. Market reaction is basically a “relief rally” as the week to week uncertainty and tensions between U.S. and China have lessened. However, tariffs will remain in place subject to a Phase 2 agreement after the November election. The initial agreement mostly requires China to buy U.S. goods and services (some uncertainty remains whether China can perform on those purchases). This should remove a source of market volatility in 2020 and should be favorable for credit spreads. Treasuries and equity markets rallied with the 10 year Treasury closing at 1.78%. The first CPI and PPI reports of 2020 indicate (surprise) extremely low inflation pressures. Stay tuned. By David R. Pascale, Jr. , Senior Vice President at George Smith Partners