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Annual WSJ Survey Report

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KEY RATE INDICES FANNIE MAE RATES *
Prime Rate 4.25%
11th District 2.708%
3 Mo. T’s (YTM)

1.19%

6 Mo. T’s (YTM) 1.24%
5 Yr. U.S. T’s 2.99%
10 Yr. US T’s 4.01%
30 Yr. US T’s 4.94%
12-MAT 2.066%
LIBOR - 1 mo. 1.38%
LIBOR - 3 mo. 1.39%
LIBOR - 6 mo. 1.40%
LIBOR - 1 yr. 1.55%
Tier 2+ (80% LTV) 5.65%
Tier 3+ (65% LTV) 5.47%
Tier 4+ (55% LTV) 5.27%
10 yr. term/30 yr. amort.

TRANSACTION OF THE WEEK!

$90,000,000 Projected Gross Sales for 2 Entry Level Residential Tracts - GSP has arranged Joint Venture Equity for adjacent sub-divisions totaling 600 homes in the Coachella Valley: An Institutional Equity Fund specializing in residential development has provided a two-stage funding consisting of: (1) $500,000 for a non- refundable deposit and the pre-development working capital (money was funded within 3 weeks of the GSP submission) and (2) $7.0 million which was funded to acquire the land upon approval of the Tentative Map 4 months later. During the initial 3 week underwriting the investor under-wrote both projects, the developer and visited the properties and negotiated, documented and executed the LLC structure for the pre-closing funding and land acquisition. Investment Structure: Non-recourse LLC with the Equity Fund providing 90% of the equity. The investor is "the managing member" and the developer is the "development member". The initial funding included $250,000 for the non-refundable deposit that was passed through to the seller and the remainder was allocated to fees and plans. The land purchase price was $6.7 million and was funded prior to the commitment of the A&D and the construction loans. It is expected that the life of these projects will be approximately 5 years. Project Overview: (1) 2 sub-divisions wrapped into one for marketing purposes; (2) Entry level with "destination pricing" where 2 people earning $10/hr can afford to purchase; (3) Single family detached; (4) Lot sizes ranging from 6,000 to 6,500 s.f; (5) Home sizes from 1,200 to 2,100 s.f.; (6) Price range $134,990 - $186,990 (7) Highly competitive market with direct comparables where investor liked entry level characteristics and developer experience with product niche. Terms: (1) Developer receives fee of 3% of gross sales payable 2% pro-rata during construction and 1% at sales closing; (2) Investor receives 1% of gross sales payable pro-rata during construction for management and oversight responsibilities; (3) Equity return 15% pari-passu on 90:10 basis; (4) 50:50 thereafter. HOT MONEY ALERT! Investor Capacity for New Deals: (1) $200 million equity in the Western U.S. in 2003; (2) Any type of residential project; land development, master planned community, single family tracts, mid-rise condominiums, note purchases and land entitlement plays; (3) Philosophy: If someone will live there and it is not a hotel, time-share or resort, "they will look at it"; (4) $2 million minimum equity per transaction with no maximum; (5) Program targeted to established developers including individuals that have experience and are on their own for the first time but have demonstrated experience with another company; (6) Like 45 days to underwrite and fund although can be quicker if necessary - much quicker if this is not the first project with the developer; (7) Decision making based 70% people, 20% business plan and 10% project. Once they have underwritten a developer, it is easy to underwrite the project; (8) Prefers 1st and 2nd time "move up" buyer and tries to stay away from luxury end of the market; (9) Decision making is made in-house; (10) Will give level of interest within 72 hours and move very quickly after that. (George Smith, Joel Simaie)

WHAT WILL INTEREST RATES DO IN 2003?

Annual WSJ Survey Report: Every year we take a look at the Wall Street Journal's annual economic forecasting survey, and this year's analysis is especially detailed (e-finfax subscribers will receive a multi-tabbed Excel workbook prepared by one of our top underwriters, who goes by the handle "gs"). The usual top 55 economists from investment banks, universities, corporations, etc. submitted their forecasts... 10 year Treasury Predictions: The consensus calls for higher rates in June 2003 (4.40%) and even higher in December 2003 (4.85%). Only 9 of the 55 calls for a lower 10 year T (than today) in June and only 3 predict a lower 10 year T for December. The highest prediction for June (5.60%) and December (6.70%) was made by Global Insight's team of Andrew Hodge and Wendy Mak. The low forecast for June (3.55%) was by CS First Boston's 3.40%--December: 3.25% by A. Gary Schilling (private company). The Curve: The consensus calls for the short end of the curve (3 month T's) to remain 3.0% inside the long end (10 year T's), maintaining the "standard" yield curve for 2003. Other Factors: The consensus calls for little or no inflation (May 2003 CPI: 2.2%), and the Fed Fund rate (Greenspan) rising approximately 0.50% in June and 1.00% for the entire year. Stay tuned... (David R. Pascale, Jr.) To request a copy of the gs analysis, please send me an email at dpascale@gspartners.com.

SPEAKER'S CORNER

George Smith is the inaugural speaker in a new series sponsored by the Jewish Federation of California's Commercial Real Estate Division. George's theme will be "2003- An Interest Rate Odyssey" and will take place on January 15 at 7:30 a.m. at the Center Club.

The series runs through November 2003, additional speakers include: Victor J. Coleman, President and COO of Arden Realty, Inc.; Michael L. Meyer, CEO of Michael L. Meyer Company; Martin A Brower, Publisher, Orange County Report; and Harvey E. Green, President and CEO of Marcus & Millichap. Breakfast events are $30 each or $120 for the series. To RSVP or to receive a brochure about the series, contact Deborah Klein, 714-755-5555, x. 225, or email: Deborah@jfoc.org.

 



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