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Interest Rate/CMBS Update: Treasuries - Over the last two weeks, a plethora of economic reports (including productivity, import prices, jobless claims, PPI, CPI, Capacity Utilization) indicated that recent Fed policy has kept inflation in check, loosened labor markets, and slowed economic growth. This led to a bond market rally as traders became convinced that the Fed would leave rates unchanged at their June 27-28 meeting. That all changed this week as continued surging oil prices seemed to override all the earlier data. This week's OPEC announcement regarding raising their production quotas was "too little, too late" to avoid high gas prices this summer. Inflation worries combined with the perception that Greenspan needs to raise rates sooner rather than later to avoid meddling with the Presidential election, have convinced economists that a .25 raise is coming next Wednesday. CMBS: Volume is down this year: $25 billion so far in 2000, as compared to $35 billion at this time last year. One originator, Parallel Capital, closed down last week, other second tier players may follow suit. Two fixed rate pools priced this week: (1) $740MM (2 originators), AAA's priced at T + 161 or Swaps + 38 (pricing under 40 over Swaps is considered excellent execution); (2) $890MM (1 originator), AAA's priced at T + 163 or Swaps + 41 (swaps fluctuated between the two pricings), with several bond classes oversubscribed. Demand is still strong for the bonds, especially with the lower supply. However, Swap spreads remain high, cutting into profit margins. The 10-year Swaps today are +120. Originators continue to push the envelope to chase a smaller universe of potential transactions. Stay tuned……
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